What’s on tap for tomorrow’s North American session?

FOMC meeting minutes, US PPI, Canada CPI

As the market works toward the New York session close, what can we expect from the economic calendar tomorrow?

  • Weekly mortgage applications, 7 AM ET 1200 GMT. Last week mortgage applications rose by 1.1% with purchases down -5.8% the refinancings up 5.0%. The number of refinancings have soared year on year. They are up 206.5% as a result of sharply lower rates the 30 year rate came in at 3.72% last week versus a 4.65% in 2019. The 15 year rate is at 3.2% versus 4.04% last year
  • Housing starts and building permits for the month of January. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. US housing starts are expected to show a annualized selling pace of 1425K versus 1608K last month. The K last month was a large 16.9% move from the previous month. The expectations are for a decline of -11.4% this month. As far as building permits which is a precursor for future housing starts, they are expected to come in at 1450K versus last month 1420K.
  • PPI final demand for the month of January.  8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. Estimate for final demand +0.1% versus 0.2% last month. Ex food and energy +0.2% versus +0.1% last month. Ex food and energy, trade, 0.1% versus +0.2% last month. The year on year numbers are expected at final demand 1.6% versus 1.3% last month.  Ex food and energy 1.3% versus 1.1% last month.  
  • Canada CPI. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. Estimate month-to-month 0.2% versus 0.0% last month. Year on year 2.3% versus 2.2% last month. Core – median year on year 2.2% versus 2.2% last month. Core common year on year 2.0% versus 2.0% last month
  • FOMC meeting minutes from the January 29 meeting. 2 PM ET/1900 GMT. The FOMC kept rates unchanged at that meeting with very little change in the statement. The Fed did say that “household spending has been rising at a moderate pace” which was weaker than the prior month when they said “household spending has been rising at a strong pace”

From a speaker perspective:

  • Fed’s Mester is expected to speak at 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT
  • Feds Kashkari is expected to speak at 11:45 PM/1645 GMT
  • Fed’s Kaplan is expected to speak at 1:30 PM ET/1830 GMT

In Europe tomorrow

  • UK will release CPI PPI data at 4:30 AM ET/0930 GMT