Technical Analysis

USDJPY extend back above its 100 hour moving average and swing area

Moves toward test of next key target at 110.324

The USDJPY fell in trading yesterday but found support near a swing area and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the June 7 low (low for the month) at 110.16 to 110.193 (see green numbered circles).  

 

Today, the price broke below that area – and also the rising 100 hour moving average – on its the way to retest a swing area between 109.839 and 109.952 (see red numbered circles). The low price reached 109.93 before bouncing back to the upside.

The hawkish comments from Feds Bullard has now pushed the price back above the aforementioned swing area between 110.161 and 110.193 (and the 100 hour MA).  That area is now risk for longs.  Stay above is more bullish. Move below and we could see a rotation back to the downside.

The pair is currently testing another swing line at 110.324. That was the high price going back to June 4. Yesterday -and again today – that was a ceiling (that stalled the upside).  A move above that level, opens up the door for more upside with 110.54 as the next major target. Above that and traders will be focused on the high for the week reached yesterday at 110.818.

The USDJPY was the outlier yesterday when there was dollar buying against all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY.   The USDJPY is starting to join the dollar bullish bandwagon, but still needs to get to and through the 110.324 level (and stay above the 110.161 level too). 

US stocks are set to open in about three minutes

  • Dow -347 point
  • S&P -32 points
  • NASDAQ -65 points
  • two year 0.24% +3 basis points
  • 10 year 1.497%, -0.7 basis points
  • Gold +1 dollar or +0.6% at 1774.38

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