Daily Market Outlook, March 28, 2023Banking Stress Recedes, Relief Rally In Bank Shares Supports SentimentFollowing a mildly positive finish on Wall Street Asian equities have also posted modest gains overnight as risk sentiment remains buoyed by a belief that the banking stress of the past few weeks is starting to recede. The Fed added further support to First Republic Bank as First Citizens Banchsares stepped in agreeing to acquire Silicon Valley Bank assets and deposits, both of which have seen a stemming in the stress in regional banking franchises in the US, however, it is likely to early to call the all clear as some investors remain on the sidelines waiting for the inevitable ‘next shoe to drop’. The overall improvement in the risk tone seen since the weekend has also weighed on interest rate expectations, with some market participants actively betting on rate cuts to begin later this year, renowned bond investor Gundlach head of Doubleline Capital believes the Fed will have to wind back rates as we head into the back end of the year, markets are currently pricing rates to close out the year around 4.25% down from prior 4.75-5%. With a lack of any tier one econ data on the docket today in the European session, investors focus will be on two key central bankers set to address political officials for quizzing on the causes of the recent banking turmoil. In the UK, Bank of England Governor will address a parliamentary committee to provide testimony on the failure of SBV UK. Stateside, US Federal Reserve Vice Chair of Supervision Barr is set to testify in front of the Senate Banking Committee to face questioning on the SBV collapse and the Feds plans to underpin financial stability in the light of the current crisis. The US data docket has little in the way of market moving data today, the only release of note is the conference board’s consumer confidence survey which will likely be an early indication of the impact of banking concerns on consumer appetite which is expected to show a decline for March.FX Options For 10am New York CutEUR/USD: 1.0950 (EU1.16b), 1.0500 (EU1.16b), 1.0880 (EU892.5m)USD/JPY: 128.50 ($590.3m), 136.28 ($479.9m)USD/CNY: 6.8500 ($354.4m)AUD/USD: 0.6750 (AUD651.8m), 0.6500 (AUD575.4m), 0.6000 (AUD450m)Overnight News of NoteAsia Markets Trade Higher As Investor Banking Turmoil Fears EaseUS Stock Futures Tick Higher After Third Positive SessionFed’s Jefferson: Still Learning Impact Of Tighter Monetary PolicyTreasury Official Set To Pledge Deposit Protections If NecessaryUS Plan Ultimatum In Mexico Energy Dispute, Ups Tariffs ThreatDoubleline’s Gundlach Predicts Recession Starts In Few MonthsJapan Finance Ministry Gives Nudge To BoJ Amid Bond WorriesNK’s Kim Jong Un Warns Nuclear Use Anytime As Carrier ArrivesAussie Feb Retail Sales Level Off As Shoppers Rein In SpendingAustralia’s Regulators To Meet After Yellen, Lagarde DiscussionsBoE’s Bailey Suggests Won’t Lift Rates Back To Pre-Crisis HighInflation In UK Shops Hits Record High With More Pain To ComeEU Delays Disbursement Of EUR19Bln Of Pandemic Aid To ItalySchwab’s $7 Trillion Empire Built On Low Rates Showing Cracks(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4000Primary resistance is 4078Primary objective is 3804Above 4040 opens 407820 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0830Primary support is 1.07Primary objective is 1.1128Below 1.0700 opens 1.066020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2280Primary support is 1.2200Primary objective 1.2411Below 1.2170 opens 1.210020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 132.20Primary resistance is 135.15Primary objective is 129.15Above 136 opens 137.9020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6696Primary resistance is .6740Primary objective is .6950Below .6560 opens .645020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 26500Primary support 23000Primary objective is 30000Below 23000 opens 2240020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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