Daily Market Outlook, March 2, 2023All Eyes On Euro Area InflationISM data left Wall Street closing on a whimper, markets are increasingly pricing a higher terminal rate for the US rate cycle, compounded by hawkish rhetoric from Fed members Bostic & Kashkari both of whom remarked that a 5%+ terminal rate is required to quash inflation, Kashkari specifically stated that services inflation was a primary concern and required real attention, as such the US 10yr yield tipped 4%, with markets pricing a further 75bp rise by the FOMC this year.Eurozone headline CPI is expected to fall to 8.4% from 8.6% in January, a smaller decline than previously forecast. ECB officials will be focused on core CPI (excluding food and energy) which market watchers expect to rise to a new record high of 5.5% from 5.3% in January,driven by services sector wage inflation. The January unemployment rate is expected to stay at all time lows anchored at 6.6%. The ECB’s minutes from the latest policy meeting in February will be released later this morning and should offer more clarity on discussions, however, the board has been very transparent in communicating its belief that further rate rises are required throughout the first half of this year. Stateside US weekly jobless claims data is pencilled in for another print below 200k as has been the case for the past six weeks which is still signalling a very tight labour market. Fed Governor Waller will make remarks on the economic outlook later this afternoon, he is expected to tow the line of ‘higher for longer’.Overnight, Japan’s CPI will also garner investor interest ahead of the national figures in a few weeks’ time, given market anticipation of policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan later this year. China’s Caixin services PMI will also be parsed for further confirmation of an economic uptick post Covid restriction relief.FX Options Expiration New York CutEUR/USD: 1.0620 (EU1.09B), 1.0660 (EU882.8M), 1.0800 (EU846.6M)USD/JPY: 125.00 ($1.1B), 132.00 ($1.1B), 136.65 ($855.5M)GBP/USD: 1.2080 (GBP307.9M) USD/CNY: 6.6500 ($600M), 6.9000 ($535.9M)AUD/USD: 0.7250 (AUD330.1M), 0.6700 (AUD328.1M)USD/BRL: 4.8500 ($425M), 5.4000 ($403.7M), 5.4810 ($401.4M)EUR/GBP: 0.9100 (EU412.1M), 0.8820 (EU390.6M), 0.9050 (EU379M)USD/KRW: 1320.00 ($692.6M), 1295.00 ($365M)Overnight News of NoteAsian Stocks Mixed After Wall St Falls On Inflation FearsChina Increasingly Ambitious With 23 Growth Target, May Aim For Up To 6%Australia’s Building Approvals Post Record Drop, Drag On GrowthJapan Firms Boost Spending Despite Global Economic SlowdownBoJ’s Takata: Must ‘Patiently’ Maintain Ultra-Loose PolicyFitch Sees Recession Coming In Germany, Italy Later This YearYuan Bears Eyeing 7 Per Dollar Face Hurdle As Congress NearsTrader Doubles Money On Big 6% Fed Rate Bet As Unwind BeginsOil Steadies As Optimism Over China Countered By Fed ConcernsChevron CEO: Oil Price Risk To Upside Begins In H2 23Salesforce Jumps After Predicting Fast Gains In Profitability(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 3975Primary support is 3885Primary objective is 4384Below 3880 opens 383520 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0680Primary resistance is 1.0805Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0860 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2080Primary resistance is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 135.50Primary support is 133.50Primary objective is 137.26Below 133.40 opens 132.8020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6790Primary resistance is .7030Primary objective is .6635Above .7050 opens .715020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 23800Primary support 2100Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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