Daily Market Outlook, February 17, 2023Fed Hawks Weigh On Risk Appetite As Investor Risk Sentiment SoursAsian equities declined as US producer price inflation and hawkish Fed rhetoric weighed on investor appetite into the weekend. Treasury yields ascended with the 10yr yield approaching 4% as markets reprice US rate expectations towards three further 25bps increases by the summer and for rates to remain higher for longer. Goldman Sachs has raised its US rate view, the firm now looks for three further 25bps hikes from the FOMC in March, May and June, lifting its view of the terminal rate to 5.25-5.50%; the firm raised its forecasts in light of stronger growth and firmer inflation metrics. In the Eurozone ECB’s Schnabel added to the hawkish tone from global central bankers as she deemed monetary policy transmission in Europe may require more aggressive ECB policy. The data docket for the European session is scant, Statetside the only print of note is import price inflation, investor attention will shift to Fed’s Barkin set to make remarks regarding the US labour market and Fed Governor Bowman is also scheduled to speak. FX Options Expiration New York CutEURUSD 1.08(455m)USDJPY 134.40(395m)GBPUSD 1.2415(403m)AUDUSD .6740(365m)Overnight News of NoteDollar Rises To 6-Week Peak As Strong US Retail Sales Bolster Higher-Rates ScenarioFed’s Mester Says She Saw ‘Compelling’ Case For Half-Point Rate HikeFed’s Bullard Backs More Interest Rate IncreasesECB’s Lane Says Tightening Effect Still In PipelineEU Commission Scratches Russia Nuclear Sanctions PlansUK PM Sunak Due In Northern Ireland As Protocol Deal ImminentDow Falls More Than 250 Points After Another Hot Inflation ReportGoldman Sachs Steps Back From Bidding For New Credit Card ProgramsBank Of America Plans Job Cuts In Its Investment BankTesla Recalls 362,758 Vehicles; Full Self-Driving Beta Software May Cause Crashes(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4177Primary support is 4005Primary objective is 4384Below 4000 opens 396520 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.0620Above 1.0820 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.20Primary resistance is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support is 131Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25000 – 25000 Target Hit, New Pattern Primary support 23500Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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