Bitcoin and ETH (D1)
Bitcoin it looks like is waking up. After several days of gloom and doom, and after a timid dip below $22,000 yesterday, the price frankly intensified its upward run, until it marked a high of $24,867, its highest level since mid-August 2022. Currently sitting at the $24585K level, BTCUSD is up about 11.4% over 24 hours and 7.3% over a week. As for Ethereum, it is up 9% at $1682.
No specific catalyst seems to be able to be defined to justify this rise in the so-called risk assets. However, several analysts have pointed to recent US data. Tuesday’s inflation figures exceeded expectations, but still lagged the previous report. More significantly, neither the CPI nor any of the other strong US data in recent days were sufficient to significantly influence expectations for Fed policy. US CPI for January was 6.4% annualised, compared to 6.2% initially expected, while core CPI for the year was 5.6%, compared to 5.5% expected.
The USDIndex broke through its key resistance at the 102 level and is currently at the 103.6 level. The strength of the Dollar has not shaken the confidence of cryptos, which are proved resilient so far.
Riyad Carey, analyst at Kaiko pointed to yesterday’s full price integration of the threat of greater regulation, saying: “Cryptos had some additional catalysts with the USD news, which were largely absorbed, and I think today was a reflection that some of the regulatory fears – and the immediate fears around USD – are easing“.
However, it is important to bear in mind that we are seeing a real explosion upwards in the US 2-year yield, a rise in the 6-month yield above 5%, something that has not happened since 2007, not to mention the inversion of the curve between the 10-year and 2-year yields that generally anticipate and indicate a coming recession.
The probability of the Fed pausing in its rate hike next month is now zero. Market participants are anticipating a 90.8% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% on 22 March, and are even looking at a 9.2% probability that it will raise rates by 0.50% at the next meeting.
Ultimately, the fate of BTC and ETH depends largely on the trajectory of US rates and the decision of the US Central Bank and its members to bring more hawkish sentiment to the markets.
Summarizing what we are seeing, there is a lot of data on inflation that is not receding, but it seems that markets prefer to ignore it, and we can also see above that the greed level is still high and rising day by day.
Technical Analysis BTC (D1)
BTC is currently at the $24585K level above its cloud, its KIJUN (Lv) and its Tenkan (Lj); the lagging span (Lb) is above the cloud and its peers clearly signifying a bullish momentum. The price could reach the $25244K level and if it is broken it could reach the resistance at the $25972K level for a second time. On the other hand, if the price starts to fall again, it could reach $23931k.
Technical Analysis ETH (D1)
The ETH price is currently at the level of $1682 above its cloud, its KIJUN (Lv) and its Tenkan (Lj); the lagging span (Lb) is above the cloud and its peers clearly signifying a bullish momentum The price could reach $1714 and if it is broken it could reach the resistance at the level of $1869. On the other hand, if the price goes back down, it could reach $1618.
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