Technical Analysis

AUDUSD moves away from the 200 day MA and tests a retracement midpoint target

Tests 50% midpoint of the range since Dec 2020 low

The AUDUSD is trading to a new session low and in the process is trading at the lowest level since December 21. The price is also testing the 50% retracement of the move up from the November swing low (start of the trend move higher to the February 2021 high).  That level comes in at 0.74983. The price is trading just around that level after dipping to a low at 0.7491.

Yesterday, the price continued the fall to the downside started after the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. The pair moved down toward the 200 day moving average at 0.75487 currently (green line in the chart above).  The price traded above and below that level late in the New York session.  In the Asian session today, the buyers tried to push the price higher but did not get very far. The high price reached 0.7560.   The price moved back below the 200 day moving average, and has been able to stay below that level.  Bearish.

Drilling down to the five minute chart below, the price action shows the bearish bias. 

After the initial dip in the Asian session today, the price did correct higher toward the 100/200 bar moving averages on the five minute chart, (blue and green lines ) AND also the 200 day moving average at 0.75487 (overlaid on the chart). 

Note how the sellers showed up near the 200 bar moving average and the 200 day moving average on that chart. Corrective buyers turned to sellers, and the price started its move back to the downside.  

Ultimately it would take a move back above the the 100 bar moving average and the 200 bar moving average (and stay above) to tilt the short term bias back to the upside for this pair.  Failure to do that and the sellers are more control.

AUDUSD on the five minute chart

Fed Bullard’s comments day on CNBC, helped to push the price even lower and further away from the 200 day moving average. Going forward staying below the 200 day moving average keeps the bias more in the sellers court. 

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