AUD/USD grinds lower by 1% on the day, nears test of key near-term levels

AUD/USD falls back towards the 0.6100 level


The pair got a mini-flash crash earlier in the day in a fall to 0.6078 before quickly rebounding towards 0.6200 but has been steadily grinding lower in the European morning.

This largely comes as the dollar continues to keep firmer on the session, as we now see the pair move back towards the 0.6100 handle and moving closer towards a test of the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 0.6079.

The near-term trendline support at 0.6071 will also offer an area for buyers to lean on.

If sellers can manage a break below those levels, it would shift the near-term bias in the pair from being more bullish to being more neutral – particularly the 100-hour MA.

That will then bring the 0.6000 level back into contention with the 200-hour MA (blue line) sitting just under there @ 0.5969 currently.

So far today, it is all about the dollar in the European morning as the greenback continues to recoup losses to start the week despite slightly better risk tones in the past two days.

In any case, I would argue to continue to keep an eye on EUR/USD and USD/JPY especially for further tells of the recent dollar momentum as both pairs are eyeing a couple of key technical breaks so far on the week.

As for dollar fundamentals itself, the situation is a bit more fluid. The greenback has weakened after the Fed action to introduce more swap lines to alleviate dollar funding pressures.

However, economic worries are continuing to persist amid ongoing lockdowns everywhere around the world and countries – especially emerging markets – will still feel the strain of having to meet their dollar debt obligations.

If central bank swap line aren’t going to cut it, we will have to see the dollar be sourced from somewhere else and this whole rush to the greenback could start once again.