POUND STERLING TALKING POINTS
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
The pound is back below the 1.18 psychological zone retracing yesterdays gains with the rest of the day heavily focused on U.S. centric data (see economic calendar below) including the much anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium. While PCE and consumer sentiment data will likely be overshadowed by Jackson Hole, it should not be ignored as the data will hold key information about the U.S. economy. Core PCE (excluding food & energy) is one of particular importance for the Fed and is scheduled to ease slightly which could take away from what has been a very hawkish build up to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Fed speakers have mostly favored the side of higher interest rates to combat inflation so it will be surprising should the Fed Chair decide to pivot away from this narrative.
GBP/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar
The Jackson Hole agenda sees Mr. Powell speaking at 0800MT which should equate to 1400GMT.
GBP/USD DAILY CHART
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG
Although still early in its development, daily GBP/USD price action seems to be forming a pattern similar to that of a bear flag or rising wedge. Regardless of the technicalities, both are indicative of a bearish continuation that could ensue should prices break below flag/wedge support (yellow). A breakout could lead to subsequent support coming into focus which does align with the fundamental backdrop.
Key resistance levels:
Key support levels:
- Flag/wedge support (yellow)
MIXED IG CLIENT SENTIMENT
IG Client Sentiment Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently LONG on GBP/USD, with 78% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment but due to recent changes in long and short positioning, we arrive at a cautious bias.
Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas